“The problem with experts is that they do not know what they do not know.”"The problem is that we like to have maps–and seem to prefer to have the wrong map of reality to no map at all. For a long time we liked to have any medicine to no medicine–and medicine only started helping (not hurting) patients in the 20th century. We prefer any theory, even wrong, to no theory.”

“Theorizing is the default activity for our brain; suspension of belief is an active one. Because of the narrative fallacy, our minds default to theory making. It takes more conscious effort–and energy–to suspend beliefs. It also takes more training–we
train children to find “explanations” instead of just teaching them to have the guts to say, “I don’t know” in certain circumstances.”

Nassim Nicholas Taleb,
author of
“The Black Swan”
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